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• Housing was more than 1/3 of China’s GDP at its peak in 2015; today it is just 20%. This is having a major impact on local government finances, as land sales are their major source of revenue.

Caixin, China’s main business paper, summed up the crisis:

“Chinese local governments are desperately seeking new revenue streams by leveraging government-owned assets to address mounting debt pressures and dwindling coffers. A document from Bishan District in Chongqing, southwest China, went viral online, outlining the formation of a “Sell Everything to Save the Day” task force aimed at monetizing state-owned assets."

[...]

China’s property bubble was based on borrowed money, mainly financed through its ‘shadow banking’ system. Essentially, it was ‘subprime on steroids’:

• House price/earnings ratios reached an eye-popping 50x in Tier 1 cities like Shanghai.
• By comparison, in the US, New York prices were ‘only’ 14x when the US subprime bubble burst in 2008.

[...]

The reason is that the state owned all land in China till 1998. So people have never been through the normal peaks and troughs of a property cycle.

Instead, as they began buying property for the first time, they assumed the government would never let prices fall. But today, this wishful thinking has been exposed.

Now, the shadow banking system is disappearing. And as the chart shows, local government debt is rising rapidly. Essentially, China risks falling into a debt trap, where new loans have to be taken out to service old loans.

Even worse [...] total debt is now >350% of GDP. The issue, as Prof Michael Pettis of Peking University noted in the summer, is that China’s stimulus programme has financed vast amounts of “non-productive investment.“

AND ITS POPULATION IS NOT ONLY AGEING, BUT FALLING

[...]

It is highly unlikely that [China's current debt] could have been repaid even if the population was young and growing quickly. But China is at the other end of the spectrum, as the chart shows. Its population is now falling, and birth rates are half what they were before 1980.

The rise in China’s median age is therefore accelerating. This is now 40 years, double the level in 1980 before the One Child Policy was introduced.

[...]

China is now inevitably going to get old before it gets rich. Its export-oriented economy is facing the prospect of major trade barriers, as the US and Europe look to preserve jobs for their own populations.

And so China’s overcapacity problem is getting worse rather than better, even in areas where it has global market leadership:

• [China's] solar industry has 80% of global demand, but is operating at just 45% of capacity.
• Its auto industry is operating at <50% of capacity. NIO’s boss says it is entering “the most fierce and brutal phase of competition.

[...]

Moscow (AFP) – One feels "buried alive", another is careful about what he says in public places -- opponents of Russia's campaign in Ukraine are being dubbed the "new silent ones", like Soviet-era dissidents.

Since the start of the offensive three years ago, Moscow has cracked down on any public dissent of what it calls the "special military operation".

Hundreds of critics have been prosecuted.

In one of the most recent cases, a Moscow court in January jailed for eight years a pensioner convicted of defaming Russia's military for denouncing "crimes" carried out by its troops in Ukraine.

As fierce fighting continues, hundreds of thousands of Russians fearing mobilisation and opposed to the offensive have fled the country.

Those opponents of the war who have stayed live in silence.

"Between 20 and 25 percent of Russians do not support the authorities," Denis Volkov, head of the Levada centre, told AFP. "They have turned in on themselves."

The Levada centre itself, an independent polling institute, is labelled a "foreign agent" by the authorities.

Opposition media refer to these critics as the "new silent ones" -- comparing them to those who kept quiet about their anti-Communist views in Soviet times.

These Russians are stuck between a rock and a hard place -- on the one hand their compatriots living abroad denounce them for being "conformists" and on the other Kremlin supporters call them "traitors".

"Silent ones, we are all like that here!" one Internet user said in a debate on the new term on Facebook, which is banned in Russia and only accessible via a virtual private network (VPN).

"We stay here without venturing into the public space because whoever comes out dies in prison," said another user.

Maria, a 51-year-old data analyst living in Moscow, has paid the price for opposing the offensive.

"For me, everything was clear form the beginning. I tried to explain to five of my colleagues who supported the operation. Waste of time," she said.

In September 2022, she suggested to her manager that the company could move out of Russia so that younger employees could avoid mobilisation.

"The result was I lost my job," she said.

She has since found a new job and works out of her house in the countryside near Moscow where she lives with her husband, a university professor.

"It's almost three years since I became a silent one," Maria said.

"It's like taking early retirement or, worse, being buried alive."

Vasily, a graphics specialist and "long-term" Kremlin critic, shared the same frustration.

He said he was "always forced to check myself".

"I no longer read my books on the metro or my favourite bloggers and I am careful not to say too much in the office".

Others find solace in art.

Ekaterina, who is in her 60s, paints portraits of musicians and poets during their performances in a Moscow loft -- a way of getting away from "this difficult moment".

"I miss freedom. I always have to control myself," she told AFP, taking long pauses in order not to say the wrong thing.

"I find escape through flowers, I draw them and turn in on myself," she said.

Rock star Yury Shevchuk, once an outspoken Kremlin critic, also considers himself in the same category.

"Some chose to sing, I chose to stay silent," said the musician, whose concerts were cancelled in Russia when he criticised fake "patriotism" during a show in May 2022.

The "new silent ones", he said, "do not get on the barricades because it does not make a lot of sense at the moment," he said in an interview last year.

"But they are doing something good and thanks to them Russia will survive."

Hong Kong (AFP) – Hong Kong is facing its toughest fiscal test in three decades following a painful run of mammoth deficits, with experts urging the government to make careful cuts as the economy wobbles.

The Chinese finance hub last saw a string of deficits after the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s -- but their scale was a fraction of the HK$252 billion ($32.4 billion) shortfall in the 2020-21 fiscal year.

Hong Kong has recorded annual deficits exceeding $20 billion in three of the past four years, according to official figures.

The city's finance chief Paul Chan said Sunday that the deficits were caused by "multiple internal and external challenges" and that a new budget unveiled on Wednesday will tightly control public spending.

While Chan earlier predicted a return to surplus in "three or so years", a former government minister told AFP that the situation is "not just due to economic cycles" spurred by the coronavirus pandemic.

"If you look at Hong Kong versus other economies in the region, for example Singapore, those other economies have done much better," said Anthony Cheung, who oversaw transport and housing policies.

Adding to the headache is the exodus of companies and high-paid workers as the city's international reputation took a hit after Beijing quelled pro-democracy protests and imposed a sweeping national security law in 2020.

Singapore and Hong Kong suffered towering deficits in 2020 because of the pandemic, but the former has been able to keep spending relative to income in check as firms shift there from the Chinese city, helping it outperform its fiscal targets.

The challenge for Hong Kong is not just to balance its books, but to find fiscal sustainability amid US-China tensions and a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy, Cheung said.

"In the past, we assumed that Hong Kong was geopolitically well-positioned... Now we have to be more careful about such presumptions."

Hong Kong is required by its mini-constitution to "strive to achieve a fiscal balance" -- a holdover from British colonial rule that kept the market mostly free from government intervention.

After returning to China in 1997, it kept taxes low and refilled its coffers with the help of land-related revenue, selling land to developers with deep pockets.

But last year Hong Kong collected just $2.5 billion that way, from a peak of $21.2 billion in 2018.

"(Land-related revenue) by itself has contributed to the majority of the income decline," said Yang Liu, a financial economist at the University of Hong Kong.

"We have a very inactive land market and declining housing prices. That's one reason that people (don't) trade, so there's no tax (income)," Liu told AFP.

Hong Kong still has healthy cash reserves and low government debt compared with most economies around the world.

But the prospect of three straight years in the red has fuelled public debate on how to spend less.

"All the new initiatives will be under much stronger scrutiny, so (the government) will be a lot more disciplined, a lot more careful," Liu said.

In his upcoming budget speech, the finance chief is set to put the latest deficit at "under HK$100 billion", adjusting for money raised from bond sales.

There are calls to roll back a transport subsidy for those aged 60 to 64, which can grow into a major burden on the government as Hong Kong's population ages.

Lawmaker Edmund Wong cautioned against pay cuts for civil servants, which he said may cause private-sector employers to follow suit, but urged the government to slim down.

"In the long term, we can greatly reduce the manpower which the government is employing now," he told AFP.

The deficits could prompt Hong Kong to rethink how it makes money, though past discussions on expanding the tax base -- such as a goods and services tax -- went nowhere.

The city's low ratio of debt to GDP -- which the government last year put at no more than 13 percent -- means it can afford to issue bonds to fund huge undertakings, experts say.

Officials have signalled they will push ahead with a massive infrastructure project in northern Hong Kong, while backing away from a separate plan to create artificial islands.

As tensions flare between the United States and China, Hong Kong is seeking untapped growth potential in the Middle East and Southeast Asia that can translate to government revenue down the line.

The city's economic fortunes are ultimately tied to how investors view the city as a regional and global hub, said Cheung, the former minister.

"We have to continue to showcase Hong Kong as a city that welcomes all kinds of views, all kinds of people, so long as they stay within the parameters of the national security legislation," Cheung said.

Sudan's military-led government has recalled its ambassador from Kenya, in protest at Nairobi's hosting of meetings aimed at forming a rival Sudanese government backed by the Rapid Support Forces.

The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced via the state-run Sudan News Agency (SUNA) that the Sudanese authorities recalled their ambassador from Kenya on Thursday.

The diplomatic row began when the Founding Alliance for Sudan was created in the Kenyan capital on Tuesday. This coalition is built around General Hemedti’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and aims to establish a parallel government to the one in Port Sudan, which is led by the Sudanese army.

The move came despite Hemedti being under United States sanctions, as he and his soldiers are accused of committing genocide in Darfur.

In Kenya, members of the political sphere and civil society have struggled to understand how Kenyan President William Ruto could have allowed such an event to take place in Nairobi.

Former vice-president Rigathi Gachagua posted on social media: "We are welcoming warlords. We are making headlines for discovering a new way to embarrass the nation." And lawyer and activist Willis Evans Otieno wrote: "Kenya cannot afford to become a breeding ground for foreign insurgencies."

In a statement, Sudan's foreign ministry accused Ruto of adopting a "disgraceful position by embracing and encouraging a conspiracy" that it says violates Sudan's sovereignty.

The ministry summoned its envoy "for consultations in protest against Kenya hosting the meetings of the rebel militia and its allies in another hostile move against Sudan," SUNA reported on Thursday.

The paramilitary RSF, which has been at war with the army in Sudan for nearly two years, said at the event in Nairobi this week that they would sign a founding charter that would lead to the formation of a "peace and unity government".

A source close to the organisers of the RSF meeting told news agencies that the signing of the charter, originally planned for Tuesday, had been postponed until the weekend.

...

The RSF's preparations to form a rival government in territories it controls come as it seeks to consolidate its hold on the Darfur region of western Sudan, where only the city of Al-Fashir and its environs are held by the army.

A spokesman for United Nations chief Antonio Guterres warned on Wednesday that the move could "increase the fragmentation of the country and risk making this crisis even worse".

On Thursday, the Arab League condemned "any steps that would undermine the unity of Sudan or expose it to division or fragmentation".

The Kenyan foreign ministry defended its hosting of the RSF event, saying this was "compatible with Kenya's role in peace negotiations".

The Sudanese military-led government responded by accusing President Ruto of acting on "his commercial and personal interests with the militia's regional sponsors" – alluding to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has been widely accused of arming the RSF, despite its repeated denials.

Last month, Kenya and the UAE signed an economic agreement, which Ruto's office hailed as "a historic milestone" and "the first agreement of its kind".

In December 2024, the UAE became the largest backer of new business projects in Africa, raising concerns about human rights and environmental protection.

The positioning of Kenya's officials continues to cause concern. Martin Mavenjina of the Kenya Human Rights Commission said: "Nairobi has not only become a haven for persona non grata but also the capital of transnational oppression."

The abduction of foreign political opponents appears to be on the rise in Kenya. In November, Uganda's opposition figure Kizza Besigye was kidnapped in Nairobi and reappeared a few days later before a military court in his home country.

Otsieno Namwaya of Human Rights Watch questioned the country's future standing on the regional and international stage, as he believes: "The Kenyan government no longer respects any international law."

Hong Kong (AFP) – Hong Kong and Singapore are the front-runners in a push by Asian governments to become cryptocurrency hubs as they look to capitalise on the global resurgence of the sector ...

Bitcoin recently hit a record of close to $110,000 while others have also rallied on the back of Trump's pro-crypto promises.

With forecasts that they could rise further, governments are keen to get a piece of the action.

Hong Kong regulators said Wednesday that the city needed to tap "global liquidity" and laid out plans including the possibility of offering riskier crypto products such as derivative trading and margin financing.

"The one word that we need to think about always is liquidity," Eric Yip, an executive director at the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), said at an industry conference in the financial hub.

"How do you bring liquidity to this market, hence commercial value, hence ecosystem?"

The collapse of exchange FTX in 2022 took along with it around $8 billion from customers who used it to buy, sell and store cryptocurrencies.

The funds were later recovered, but regulators around the world are anxious to avoid a repeat, and the sector has since moved away from its freewheeling, anti-establishment origins to embrace regulation.

Officials stress the need for investor protection while still hoping their rules will be business-friendly.

"There was a lot more scrutiny two or three years (ago), right after FTX... (Regulators) want to make sure that they do the proper due diligence," said Hong Fang, president of another exchange, OKX.

Officials in Malaysia and Thailand are mulling crypto-related policy shifts, while Japan, South Korea and Cambodia have made incremental moves, according to Bloomberg News.

But Hong Kong and Singapore, along with Middle East standout Dubai, cemented their front-runner status during a period when US regulators under Joe Biden's administration were sceptical toward crypto.

In an executive order last month, Trump -- who has pledged to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" -- said he will instead provide "regulatory clarity and certainty" to support blockchain and digital asset innovation.

Animoca Brands group president Evan Auyang said the anticipation surrounding a new US playbook is a game changer and will influence regulators worldwide.

Singapore's Monetary Authority has issued "Major Payment Institution" licences in relation to digital payment tokens to 30 companies, including OKX, which it added last year.

The city-state has had a head start in regulating digital assets, including with efforts such as the 2022 Project Guardian that brought regulators together with major global banks to explore asset tokenisation.

That project showed Singapore "engaged early on central banks, regulatory bodies, international standards setting bodies", Leong Sing Chiong from the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in November.

Hong Kong, which uses a different approach, has granted "Virtual Asset Trading Platform" licences to 10 companies.

The Chinese finance hub is "number two... behind Singapore" when it comes to crypto regulation, said Animoca's Auyang.

While Hong Kong has fewer exchanges, they saw a spike last year in terms of value received, according to blockchain research platform Chainalysis.

In the first half of 2024, Hong Kong's centralised exchanges collectively received $26.6 billion, almost triple the year before and almost double Singapore's $13.5 billion.

Hong Kong overhauled its legal framework for crypto exchanges in mid-2023, with the SFC put in charge of vetting and licensing.

China has banned crypto since 2021 and exchanges in the semi-autonomous enclave cannot serve mainland Chinese clients.

But Yat Siu, executive chairperson of Animoca Brands, said pro-crypto policies have Beijing's "blessing" and that Hong Kong benefits from being China's financial gateway.

Aside from exchanges, the SFC on Wednesday said it will explore a range of regulations, including for custody services, staking and over-the-counter trading.

"Hong Kong isn't sitting back and saying, 'Look at the US, we're just going to sort of kick back'," Siu said. "It actually spurs it more into action."

However, the city's regulators have learned that the devil is in the details.

Hong Kong regulatory lawyer Jonathan Crompton said: "Anybody who engages in (exchange licensing) is going to have to commit to a very serious governance regime... It's not for the faint-hearted."

Over the past two years, some companies have reportedly found it challenging to hire specialised compliance personnel. The SFC vetting team, too, is understaffed.

The regulator's website lists eight pending candidates, while 13 have withdrawn their applications.

"The SFC has been stuck between a rock and a hard place," Crompton told AFP.

"People have complained that, on one hand, it's not quick enough to introduce a regulatory regime, and on the other hand, they have not provided enough protection."

The United States has threatened to cut off Ukraine's access to Starlink satellite internet terminals if Kyiv does not reach a deal with the U.S. regarding critical mineral resources, Reuters reported on Feb. 21, citing three sources familiar with the negotiations.

Archived version: https://archive.is/20250222160934/https://kyivindependent.com/us-threatens-to-shut-off-starlink-if-ukraine-wont-sign-minerals-deal-sources-tell-reuters/

Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.

Nearly 50% of British survey respondents believe their government should prioritize supporting Ukraine over preserving relations with the US.

Archived version: https://archive.is/20250222130448/https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/nearly-50-percent-of-britons-favor-supporting-ukraine-over-us/

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The Russian military is sending wounded troops on crutches back to the frontlines to fight, and redeploying soldiers with significant injuries to combat roles, as it struggles with growing manpower issues, according to videos and testimony obtained by CNN.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/22/europe/russia-wounded-troops-frontline-latam-intl/index.html

Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.

The U.S. is reportedly using access to Starlinks as a bargaining chip.

Archived version: https://archive.is/20250222190643/https://tvpworld.com/85232322/poland-pledges-to-continue-to-pay-for-ukraines-satellite-internet-says-minister

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Shoppers are demanding a law to regulate prices and asking supermarkets to limit their profit margins on foodstuffs to less than 30%.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/02/22/bulgarian-consumers-boycott-major-supermarkets-to-protest-rising-food-prices

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Donald Trump's return to the White House has forced Kyiv and other European capitals to ask themselves a sobering question: What will happen to Western support for Ukraine if the U.S. withdraws?

Archived version: https://archive.is/20250222102002/https://kyivindependent.com/we-are-now-producing-more-than-americans-eu-defense-commissioner-on-europes-arms-rebirth/

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cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/56370307

Governor Gavin Newsom said the requested funds will help in immediate and long-term recovery work.

Archived version: https://archive.is/20250222192557/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8mdrvnmkno

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The pontiff is in hospital for a complex lung infection and has been been given high flows of oxygen and blood transfusions

Archived version: https://archive.is/20250222192534/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/22/pope-francis-now-in-a-critical-condition-after-respiratory-crisis-vatican-says

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The three Israeli men in their 20s — Omer Wenkert, Omer Shem Tov, and Eliya Cohen — were brought out by masked, armed Hamas fighters.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-ceasefire-hostages-02-22-2025-364c7abeb679e910cb5acba234469574

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Cross posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/29929397

A Chinese navy ship fired live rounds on Saturday after issuing a warning through a radio broadcast, the New Zealand government said.

Personnel on a New Zealand naval frigate "observed live rounds being fired from the Zunyi's main gun, as would be expected during the course of such an exercise," the office of New Zealand's defense minister said in a statement.

New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said "we monitoring and shadowing and tracking the fleet."

It came a day after China conducted similar drills in international waters between Australia and New Zealand, which led to disruptions in flights.

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said on Saturday that the government did not yet have "a satisfactory answer from China as to the question of the notice" of the drills, which he has said was "disconcerting" for commercial aviation.

Australia and New Zealand have been monitoring the three Chinese navy vessels — a frigate, a cruiser and a supply tanker — since they were seen off Australia's shores last week.

''2025 is the year of victory for Hungary'', Orbán declared.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/in-speech-orban-hails-trump-victory-and-declares-brussels-his-key-adversary/

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Cross posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/29925608

Archived

A proposed dam in China’s Medog county would be the world’s largest hydroelectric project, surpassing even China’s Three Gorges Dam, which is currently the largest dam in the world. The Yarlung Tsangpo, originating from the Tibetan Plateau, flows into India as the Brahmaputra River and continues into Bangladesh as the Jamuna. And not surprisingly, China’s ambition has alarmed downstream countries.

Reports suggest that this dam could significantly alter water flow patterns, affecting millions of people who depend on the river for agriculture, fisheries, and daily consumption.

...

India, which relies heavily on the Brahmaputra River, is likely to face serious hydrological challenges. The river provides water to Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and other northeastern states, supporting nearly 130 million people and six million hectares of farmland. If China diverts or controls the river’s flow, India could experience unpredictable floods during monsoon seasons and severe droughts in dry months. A 2024 study published in the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs warned that China could manipulate water releases, potentially affecting India’s economic and strategic interests. Indian hydrologists have expressed concerns that sediment flow, crucial for agriculture, may be blocked by the dam, reducing soil fertility in the northeastern plains.

...

China’s unilateral decision to build the Medog dam, without consulting downstream nations, raises geopolitical tensions in South Asia. The lack of a water-sharing treaty between China, India, and Bangladesh further exacerbates the situation. While China has provided hydrological data to India since 2006 and to Bangladesh since 2008, experts argue that such data-sharing agreements are insufficient in preventing potential water conflicts. India has expressed concerns about China’s control over transboundary rivers, with policymakers advocating for stronger diplomatic and strategic countermeasures.

...

[Edit title for clarity.]

President Emmanuel Macron said there was "no doubt it was an Islamist terrorist attack".

Archived version: https://archive.is/20250222182519/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c984enp4480o

Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/2007127

...

Weidel admitted meeting Wu but said she met him once in months. As for their discussions, Weidel said that she sought an understanding of China’s position on Germany.

...

The damning findings come days ahead of German parliamentary elections in which AfD has rattled mainstream politicians. As per latest opinion polls, the party stands second in popularity and way ahead of incumbent SPD. While AfD’s links to the neo-Nazi movement have led to widespread concerns and contributed to its ostracisation by German parties, the links to China have led to fresh concerns whether a top contender for German chancellorship has been groomed by China.

The findings are all the more damning as European far-right has long been supported by Russia and China is Russia’s principal ally. The AfD is so extremist that even French far-right party, National Rally (RN), broke ties with it in the European Union (EU) elections last year. Moreover, AfD has previously been charged with spying for China and such allegations contributed to the RN-AfD split.

...

AfD leader Alice Weidel’s long relationship to China

In light of revealation of Weidel’s secret meetings with the top Chinese diplomat in Germany, fresh attention has come on her long relationship with China that goes back to decades. It is bound to be explored whether she has been groomed by China to do the Communist Party’s bidding in Germany and Europe.

...

As an economist, Weidel worked for the state-owned Bank of China and lived in China for six years. It has been reported that she was on scholarship during those years. Her doctoral thesis was also written on Chinese pension system.

...

In China, Weidel worked at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

While Weidel today leads a party linked to neo-Nazis, her grandparents were members of the Nazi Party. Her grandfather, Hans Weidel, was a prominent Nazi judge who persecuted political opponents of the Nazi regime. He was appointed by Adolf Hitler himself.

The United States on Thursday declined to co-sponsor a draft UN General Assembly resolution marking three years since the invasion of Ukraine, according to a source for Interfax-Ukraine.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.jurist.org/news/2025/02/us-refuses-to-co-sponsor-draft-un-resolution-condemning-russia-aggression-in-ukraine/

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The Hungarian government has asked the EU to refrain from any new initiatives that could undermine the Trump-led negotiations.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/02/21/as-eu-countries-try-to-close-ranks-on-trump-hungary-emerges-as-main-roadblock

Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.