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Ontario slapping 25% surcharge on U.S.-bound electricity Monday, Ford says
(ici.radio-canada.ca)
this post was submitted on 07 Mar 2025
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The era of US-Canada being brothers in arms is over. I doubt US will be receiving any favors in the future without something in return. And if Canada chooses to expand their supply chains outside of the US, which they 100% should, there’ll be no coming back to a scale of trade as it exists today.
Canada - America trade amounts to a little over $920B https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12595
Canadian GDP is a little over $2.1T https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CA
We're talking nearly half of their GDP. In addition, half of Canadian foreign investment comes directly from the US. They will continue to be integrated into the US economy, even if Trump doubled the tariffs tomorrow.
And that's because Canada, and Mexico to an even higher extent, are completely reliant on US trade. They both have no real choice but to grin and bear it. They will of course speak out publicly for the domestic audience but things will continue more or less status quo for the foreseeable future.
canada and Mexico are not “grinning and bearing it” though
Yes, they are. There will be no meaningful response because they have no leverage. Any meaningful change from status quo would mean an immediate economic crisis.
Ignore what they say on camera because they are speaking to their domestic audience.
Right now, Canada has placed a 25% tariff on $30B worth of imports. That's 7% of US imports. Whereas Trump has placed 25% on everything that Canada exports to the US.
And 80% of Canadian exports go directly to the US.
So just for reference.
Canada retaliatory tariff -> $30B which represents less than 1% of total US exports
Trump's tariffs -> ~$550B which represents nearly 80% of total Canadian exports
Ignore the rhetoric, look at the numbers. Canada and Mexico have no choice. They signed their economic autonomy away a long time ago. It's sort of like when Greece went through their debt crisis and couldn't do jack shit because they signed away their autonomy to Brussels (and really Germany).
There are trade-offs to every decision. Canada got easy access to the American market and a nice way to exploit their natural resources. But it also gives Washington an absurd amount of leverage over them.
Mexico is even more screwed.
I’m not disagreeing with you that free trade with the US was a very stupid thing for Canada to agree to, but back in the day it was shoved down our throats by the conservative government of the day. Canada is experiencing the consequences of that poor decision right now. That being said, as an export heavy, raw materials-heavy country we have a lot of options. In the first Trunp presidency we signed CETA with the EU, we already get a lot of food imports from Mexico (that won’t change) and since Donald was elected the 2nd time we’ve signed trade deals with Ecuador, and new military agreements with Brazil and the Philippines on top of all our existing allies. There will be more deals that Canada makes, unlike the US, our signature on international agreements actually means something. Canadians aren’t at all like Americans, we are united and we will do anything and everything it takes to protect our sovereignty and our country. Again unlike Americans, we are prepared to go without. We’re a smaller economy and therefore more nimble. We’re doing all kinds of things internally as well. Barring military action by the US on us, I am not that worried and have full confidence in all Canadians to stand up for ourselves and do what we need to do to rid ourselves of the US fascist protectionist isolationist scourge.
All countries are sovereign but some countries are more sovereign than others. If Canada's priority was protecting sovereignty then they would not be in this position to begin with.
It's something that has been decades in the making. It will take decades to reverse course. It isn't going to meaningfully change in the upcoming 5-10 years.
You say Canadians are ready to "go without" but we're talking about millions of people losing their jobs. A historic spike in poverty. Collapse of many industries. No sane leadership would ever cut off trade with America. National pride doesn't feed a family.
Long term, sure, maybe there will be a realignment. I doubt it, but it's possible. The near future is a chaotic one where Canada and Mexico are going to need the economic value from America. We're headed for troubled times globally.
Unlike the US we don’t hate, despise, and distrust the federal govt. No matter which party is in power. Even our Conservative Party supports gay marriage, trans & LGBTQ rights, equity, gun control and legal weed. Our govt has already put in place supports for those who will lose their jobs due to the US being a bag of dicks. We believe there is a role for federal govt and that it has responsibilities to uphold. We’re much closer ideologically to most European countries so we’re going to continue fostering our excellent relationships with France, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, etc. The US is free to cut down its own national parks for lumber. Enjoy!
Just in case it isn't clear I don't support Trump nor the tariffs.
I voted against Trump and I hate him with a vengeance. I'm discussing the geopolitical and economic context of the tariffs and the dynamic between US and Canada. I was surprised when I started doing research about this recently just how reliant in the US Canada truly is. The numbers were shocking to me. Likewise with Mexico. For some reasons the news doesn't really cover these details.
There really is no world where the US is not Canada's largest trade partner. It doesn't matter what government is in power. No amount if federal unemployment would cover a quarter of your economy vanishing overnight.
And on the topic of a united Canada- https://www160.statcan.gc.ca/good-governance-saine-gouvernance/institutions-eng.htm
Public faith in federal institutions is at an all time low.. just like the US. Right wing populism is on the rise... just like the US. Canada is a lot closer to the US both culturally and politically than any European country. This should be intuitive- both are cut from the same cloth. British settler colonial societies.
And Canada is starting to fall victim to the same style of right-wing populism we are seeing in the US (Trump), Latin America (Brazil/Bolsonaro, Argentina/Milei), and Europe (UK/Brexit, Germany/AfD, Italy/FdI, France/Le Penn, Sweden/Dems) etc.
Don't let some vague sense of national pride blind you from seeing the truth for what it is. Confront the truth head on even if it is uncomfortable.