this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2025
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Of course there is.
Today Russia is incapable of any win scenario, so either it will be a dragged out war (thanks trump) or we fund them adequately and Ukraine will bloody Russia's nose and economy until they have to either draw back or have their society crumble.
Russia can totally win. A peace of compromise, full of territorial concessions, lack of reparations or security guarantees... any of these things are a victory for Russia and a disastrous defeat for Ukraine and Europe.
Russia can absolutely win if serious measures are not taken very decisively. We are on a precipice.
Well a win for Russia means taking Ukraine, and that's extremely unlikely, basically the USA have to help Russia out or something.
Also, I don't count the Russians propaganda wins as wins (a wheat field here, a bombarded village there...).
That said, I sure do hope Europe continues to arm up and support Ukraine, and one can dream about US help ofc.
A Russian propaganda win is a win the sense that it enables Moscow to start a new war in a near future. If the Russia can make the 300 000 lost human lives look justified to its own population, it is able to make a micro-invasion into a NATO. In such a scenario, it takes the city of Narva and stops, hoping that at least Germany will refuse to help Estonia regain the city, thus functionally ending NATO. Even if Germany will turn out to help Estonia after all, the terror the people of Narva will have to endure in such a scenario will be horrible, and it also means there is a war between nuclear powers, which is a thing I'd like to avoid. And of course: Refusing to defend Estonia would not avoid the war, but helping Ukraine block the Russia from getting a propaganda victory does.
The Russia must be prevented from getting a propaganda win, because if it does, there will be a war in EU.