Canada

One theory is Trudeau put in a clearly unpopular capital gains tax policy and blew past the budget to have Freeland blame him was all preordained in order to elect Carney as the savior, who is a climate change advocate who will appear progressive enough to push a pipeline through Quebec using this constitutional crisis. In order to lower reliance on Russian energy globally, since we cant get a pipeline for LNG overseas exports any other way, given how provincial powers work in Canada.

The last 15 years Alberta contributed 240b to Ottawa while Quebec received 327b, if Alberta leaves as a tariff wipes out Quebecs industries its obviously leaves them with no choice. Cons obviously cant push a pipeline either, given Quebecs hatred of the Cons.