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Why Climate Goals Aren’t a Lost Cause—Even If We Overshoot Them | Earth will likely warm by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, but we can’t give up on trying to get temperatures back down
(www.scientificamerican.com)
Archived copies of the article:
- archive.today - should eventually load, but hasn't as of posting time
- web.archive.org - has text but key diagrams don't load
The key thing here is that the less overshoot the better, and the amount of overshoot we can afford is small.
No one with any political power is even remotely trying to prevent that. Maybe we can have a huge war that kills billions to slow the rate of ascent. It is the most likely path that actually results in a timely emissions reduction that is politically tenable (see Iran v. Israel and Pakistan v. India for potential starting points, Ukraine v. Russia could escalate too, I suppose).
More likely, the climate will start killing us in greater quantities (famines, floods, hurricanes, droughts) resulting in an emission reduction. Eventually, it is a self correcting problem, but that most likely outcome maximizes suffering.
Well Iran vs Israel is already happening and escalating into probably a forever war but I doubt war will help climate change War itself also causes a fuck ton of emissions and environmental damage
It hasn't really ramped up to anywhere near the levels I am talking about yet. I am looking at it from a perspective of WW3 woth billions dead before it lowers carbon emissions. Pretty that carbon will not be our worst concern among all of the fallout.
Xi seems to be putting China on a decarbonization trajectory. Not as fast as we need, but one that's meaningful