Collapse

457 readers

6 users here now

This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.

Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.

RULES

1 - Remember the human

2 - Link posts should come from a reputable source

3 - All opinions are allowed but discussion must be in good faith.

4 - No low effort, high volume and low relevance posts.

Related lemmys:

founded 9 months ago

MODERATORS

eleitl@lemm.ee

maketotaldestr0i@lemm.ee

eris@lemm.ee

Multi-objective observational constraint of tropical Atlantic and Pacific low-cloud variability narrows uncertainty in cloud feedback | Nature Communications (www.nature.com)

submitted 4 weeks ago by eleitl@lemm.ee to c/collapse@lemm.ee

0 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Abstract

Tropical marine low cloud feedback is key to the uncertainty in climate sensitivity, and it depends on the warming pattern of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we empirically constrain this feedback in two major low cloud regions, the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, using interannual variability. Low cloud sensitivities to local SST and to remote SST, represented by lower-troposphere temperature, are poorly captured in many models of the latest global climate model ensemble, especially in the less-studied tropical Atlantic. The Atlantic favors large positive cloud feedback that appears difficult to reconcile with the Pacific—we apply a Pareto optimization approach to elucidate trade-offs between the conflicting observational constraints. Examining ~200,000 possible combinations of model subensembles, this multi-objective observational constraint narrows the cloud feedback uncertainty among climate models, nearly eliminates the possibility of a negative tropical shortwave cloud feedback in CO2-induced warming, and suggests a 71% increase in the tropical shortwave cloud feedback.

no comments (yet)

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

there doesn't seem to be anything here