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!ukpolitics@lemm.ee appears to have vanished! We can still see cached content from this link, but goodbye I guess! :'(
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead is nineteen percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 27% (-4) Lab 46% (+4) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Other 16% (+2)
Fieldwork: 16th - 19th June 2023 Sample: 1,554 GB adults
(Changes from 9th - 12th June 2023)
Flavible:
| Party | Pred % | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.0% | 159 |
| LAB | 46.0% | 380 |
| LD | 10.0% | 32 |
| REFUK | 5.0% | 0 |
| Green | 6.0% | 1 |
| SNP | 4% | 53* |
| PC | 0.5% | 3 |
*Big disbelief 🤨
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 375 | 27.0% | 0 | 257 | -257 | 118 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 198 | 46.0% | 263 | 0 | +263 | 461 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 8 | 10.0% | 8 | 0 | +8 | 16 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 6.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 4.0% | 0 | 15 | -15 | 33 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 2 | 0.8% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2 |
| Other | 1.1% | 0 | 1.8% | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| N.Ire | - | 18 | - | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
SNP is a regional party so 4% nationally is a lot more for them.
Kind of surprised the SNP’s numbers didn’t go down TBH, I expected them to come out of this rather badly in light of recent scandals, particularly since a general election would be a fairly good opportunity for Scottish voters to give the ruling party a kick up the backside without actually removing them from power, in much the same way that we use local elections. Glad to see the Lib Dems are going up though, it'll be good to have a counterbalancing force to the Tories in parliament, plus they’re more liberal on social issues which is nice, though they could be a lot better on that score. Still, you’ve gotta take what you can get in Tory Britain.
As I said above this data is useless anyway, people anyways complain about the ruling party but by election time they've crawled back.
Meaningless this far from the elections. But it's possible the tabloids might let Starmer win, he's utterly anodyne to the left so no danger of him endangering any entrenched interests.