asieriko

I see two main contenders Van der Poel and Pogacar. After San Remo, I believe that Mathieu is stronger as he was able to follow Pogacar on both climbs. In order to win Pogacar should drop MVP, and even if the climbs are harder than in San Remo, they are shorter and better suited to Van der Poel.

Pedersen and Ganna are strong too, but I see them below the other two. I give them chances if the race is played differently, a crazy race with no control.

Finally, Van Aert et al. should be there too, but I see him incapable of fighting Van der Poel, he is very strong in stage races but has problems in one day's. And Jorgenson is strong, but I don't see him with the two favorites and hardly with Ganna and Pedersen.

Let's see

But Pedersen and Ganna were too strong on Paris-Nice and Tirreno, I don't know if they will be better. On the other hand Mathieu is improving with respect to Tirreno. And after his climbing performance in San Remo I don't see Pogacar dropping him on Flandres, and even less on Roubaix.

I hope for a team strategy like Ineos did when Van Vaarle won.

Very strong Van der Poel, clearly superior to Pedersen and Ganna. Pogacar will be the only rival for the cobbled monuments.

Disappointing Van Aert, lately he doesn't deliver in the races that should matter to him.

Yeah, Ganna is definitely strong. He can be a surprise in the cobbles.

However, I don't see any stronger than Van der Poel now. I thought that he was not on a very good shape on Tirreno, but watching him yesterday the only option I see is a team ride like Ineos did when Van Baarle won in 2022.

Pogacar could be there too, but I don't see him beating VDP.

When at half Poggio Pogacar couldn't go solo, I pictured MVP winning, if not for a surprise attack from Ganna.

Now I see very difficult for Pogacar winning MSR or Paris Roubaix, he needs harder races.

You nailed it!

Surprisingly they are not letting the break open a big gap. I has been a bit more than 5 minutes, but now I almost 3, with more than 200k to go.

The big question for today:

Will Pogacar try something climbing the Cipressa?

I cuold see it if they climb it so fast that only a few riders arrive to the las km

I think Pedersen is very strong, and he has done goog MSR before. On the other hand I have doubts about Van der Poel, I known that he is able to win without racing, but I didn't see him good in previous races.

About Pogacar I'm divided, he tried the las two years the same (hard pace by Wellens), but he wasn't able to drop the contenders, Poggio is not hard enough. But, I do remember how he was able to win in Flandes, where I thought thar it would be too difficult for him to drop Van der Poel. I think that he has to arrive to the poggio with some seconds because he is not the best descender (not bad, but not the best).

Ganna is very strong, and not only on flats but also on climbs. He has climbed the Poggio with Pogacar before. I believe that he has his chances.

And you can never rule out Matthews in this race. Mohoric is also there. Magnus Cort can be an outsider to, but I don't see him winning this race.

There are other names too, which may have a chance if the first on Poggio slown down and produce a bigger group.

Let's see.

It was an impressive performance, but still he only took a few seconds on the Galibier. It was significant however, that Vingegaard lost more time on the descent, he didn't look so strong.

But the Tour is long, Vingegaard can improve his performance and Pogacar feel the fatigue from the Giro. Or Vingegaard can miss the training he should have done, we'll have to wait.

Last year started in a similar way, with Vingegaard stealing a few seconds to Pogacar on the pirinees, and then he was even stronger. And Pogacar has been able to leave Vingegaard a few seconds behind on multiple occasions with his powerful rithm change.

I don't know what to think yet about those two.

Remco did better than I expected. Rodriguez was on par and Roglic a bit worse than I hoped.

Visma as a team failed, while UAE was impressive (maybe too impressive). Landa was very good also for his team.

The rest only can hope someone to fail to enter the top-10 and/or fight for stages.

(How will this comment age until the end of the race?)

Also the first yellow jersey for Ecuador

I like your optimistic view, however, I see how records are broken and races are faster than ever. Some teams improve drastically their performance from one year to the next and for others is just the opposite.

There are no positive doping tests on popular sports (football,...), so it seems that cycling has taken the same approach towards that improves its public image.

Anyway, this is all speculation, of course.

I continue to watch it without thinking too much about it.