scruiser

joined 2 years ago
[–] scruiser@awful.systems 9 points 1 day ago

Those opening Peter Thiel quotes... Thiel uses talks about (in a kind of dated and maybe a bit offensive) trans people, to draw the comparison to transhumanists wanting to change themselves more extensively. The disgusting irony is that Thiel has empowered the right-wing ecosystem, which is deeply opposed to trans rights.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 13 points 1 day ago (3 children)

So recently (two weeks ago), I noticed Gary Marcus made a lesswrong account to directly engage with the rationalists. I noted it in a previous stubsack thread

Predicting in advance: Gary Marcus will be dragged down by lesswrong, not lesswrong dragged up towards sanity. He’ll start to use lesswrong lingo and terminology and using P(some event) based on numbers pulled out of his ass.

And sure enough, he has started talking about P(Doom). I hate being right. To be more than fair to him, he is addressing the scenario of Elon Musk or someone similar pulling off something catastrophic by placing too much trust in LLMs shoved into something critical. But he really should know better by now that using their lingo and their crit-hype terminology strengthens them.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 6 points 5 days ago

Here’s a LW site dev whining about the study, he was in it and i think he thinks it was unfair to AI

There a complete lack of introspection. It seems like the obvious conclusion to draw from a study showing people's subjective estimates of their productivity with LLMs were the exact opposite of right would inspire him to question his subjectively felt intuitions and experience but instead he doubles down and insists the study must be wrong and surely with the latest model and best use of it it would be a big improvement.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 4 points 1 week ago

You’re welcome.

Given their assumptions, the doomers should be thanking us for delaying AGI doom!

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 4 points 1 week ago

Ah, you see, you fail to grasp the shitlib logic that the US bombing other countries doesn't count as illegitimate violence as long as the US has some pretext and maintains some decorum about it.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 9 points 1 week ago

They probably got fed up with a broken system giving up it's last shreds of legitimacy in favor of LLM garbage and are trying to fight back? Getting through an editor and appeasing reviewers already often requires some compromises in quality and integrity, this probably just seemed like one more.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 12 points 1 week ago (1 children)

The hidden prompt is only cheating if the reviewers fail to do their job right and outsource it to a chatbot, it does nothing to a human reviewer actually reading the paper properly. So I won't say it's right or ethical, but I'm much more sympathetic to these authors than to reviewers and editors outsourcing their job to an unreliable LLM.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 12 points 1 week ago (2 children)

The only question is who will get the blame.

Isn't it obvious? Us sneerers and the big name skeptics (like Gary Marcuses and Yann LeCuns) continuously cast doubt on LLM capabilities, even as they are getting within just a few more training runs and one more scaling of AGI Godhood. We'll clearly be the ones to blame for the VC funding drying up, not years of hype without delivery.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 9 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

I think we mocked this one back when it came out on /r/sneerclub, but I can't find the thread. In general, I recall Yudkowsky went on a mini-podcast tour a few years back. I think the general trend was that he didn't interview that well, even by lesswrong's own standards. He tended to simultaneously assume too much background familiarity with his writing such that anyone not already familiar with it would be lost and fail to add anything actually new for anyone already familiar with his writing. And lots of circular arguments and repetitious discussion with the hosts. I guess that's the downside of hanging around within your own echo chamber blog for decades instead of engaging with wider academia.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 7 points 1 week ago

For purposes of something easily definable and legally valid that makes sense, but it is still so worthy of mockery and sneering. Also, even if they needed a benchmark like that for their bizarre legal arrangements, there was no reason besides marketing hype to call that threshold "AGI".

In general the definitional games around AGI are so transparent and stupid, yet people still fall for them. AGI means performing at least human level across all cognitive tasks. Not across all benchmarks of cognitive tasks, the tasks themselves. Not superhuman in some narrow domains and blatantly stupid in most others. To be fair, the definition might not be that useful, but it's not really in question.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 5 points 2 weeks ago

Optimistically, he's merely giving into the urge to try to argue with people: https://xkcd.com/386/

Pessimistically, he realized how much money is in the doomer and e/acc grifts and wants in on it.

[–] scruiser@awful.systems 5 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Best case scenario is Gary Marcus hangs around lw just long enough to develop even more contempt for them and he starts sneering even harder in this blog.

 

So, lesswrong Yudkowskian orthodoxy is that any AGI without "alignment" will bootstrap to omnipotence, destroy all mankind, blah, blah, etc. However, there has been the large splinter heresy of accelerationists that want AGI as soon as possible and aren't worried about this at all (we still make fun of them because what they want would result in some cyberpunk dystopian shit in the process of trying to reach it). However, even the accelerationist don't want Chinese AGI, because insert standard sinophobic rhetoric about how they hate freedom and democracy or have world conquering ambitions or they simply lack the creativity, technical ability, or background knowledge (i.e. lesswrong screeds on alignment) to create an aligned AGI.

This is a long running trend in lesswrong writing I've recently noticed while hate-binging and catching up on the sneering I've missed (I had paid less attention to lesswrong over the past year up until Trump started making techno-fascist moves), so I've selected some illustrative posts and quotes for your sneering.

  • Good news, China actually has no chance at competing at AI (this was posted before deepseek was released). Well. they are technically right that China doesn't have the resources to compete in scaling LLMs to AGI because it isn't possible in the first place

China has neither the resources nor any interest in competing with the US in developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) primarily via scaling Large Language Models (LLMs).

  • The Situational Awareness Essays make sure to get their Yellow Peril fearmongering on! Because clearly China is the threat to freedom and the authoritarian power (pay no attention to the techbro techno-fascist)

In the race to AGI, the free world’s very survival will be at stake. Can we maintain our preeminence over the authoritarian powers?

  • More crap from the same author
  • There are some posts pushing back on having an AGI race with China, but not because they are correcting the sinophobia or the delusions LLMs are a path to AGI, but because it will potentially lead to an unaligned or improperly aligned AGI
  • And of course, AI 2027 features a race with China that either the US can win with a AGI slowdown (and an evil AGI puppeting China) or both lose to the AGI menance. Featuring "legions of CCP spies"

Given the “dangers” of the new model, OpenBrain “responsibly” elects not to release it publicly yet (in fact, they want to focus on internal AI R&D). Knowledge of Agent-2’s full capabilities is limited to an elite silo containing the immediate team, OpenBrain leadership and security, a few dozen US government officials, and the legions of CCP spies who have infiltrated OpenBrain for years.

  • Someone asks the question directly Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?. Judging by upvoted comments, lesswrong orthodoxy of all AGI leads to doom is the most common opinion, and a few comments even point out the hypocrisy of promoting fear of Chinese AGI while saying the US should race for AGI to achieve global dominance, but there are still plenty of Red Scare/Yellow Peril comments

Systemic opacity, state-driven censorship, and state control of the media means AGI development under direct or indirect CCP control would probably be less transparent than in the US, and the world may be less likely to learn about warning shots, wrongheaded decisions, reckless behaviour, etc. True, there was the Manhattan Project, but that was quite long ago; recent examples like the CCP's suppression of information related to the origins of COVID feel more salient and relevant.

 

I am still subscribed to slatestarcodex on reddit, and this piece of garbage popped up on my feed. I didn't actually read the whole thing, but basically the author correctly realizes Trump is ruining everything in the process of getting at "DEI" and "wokism", but instead of accepting the blame that rightfully falls on Scott Alexander and the author, deflects and blames the "left" elitists. (I put left in quote marks because the author apparently thinks establishment democrats are actually leftist, I fucking wish).

An illustrative quote (of Scott's that the author agrees with)

We wanted to be able to hold a job without reciting DEI shibboleths or filling in multiple-choice exams about how white people cause earthquakes. Instead we got a thousand scientific studies cancelled because they used the string “trans-” in a sentence on transmembrane proteins.

I don't really follow their subsequent points, they fail to clarify what they mean... In sofar as "left elites" actually refers to centrist democrats, I actually think the establishment Democrats do have a major piece of blame in that their status quo neoliberalism has been rejected by the public but the Democrat establishment refuse to consider genuinely leftist ideas, but that isn't the point this author is actually going for... the author is actually upset about Democrats "virtue signaling" and "canceling" and DEI, so they don't actually have a valid point, if anything the opposite of one.

In case my angry disjointed summary leaves you any doubt the author is a piece of shit:

it feels like Scott has been reading a lot of Richard Hanania, whom I agree with on a lot of points

For reference the ssc discussion: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1jyjc9z/the_edgelords_were_right_a_response_to_scott/

tldr; author trying to blameshift on Trump fucking everything up while keeping up the exact anti-progressive rhetoric that helped propel Trump to victory.

 

So despite the nitpicking they did of the Guardian Article, it seems blatantly clear now that Manifest 2024 was infested by racists. The post article doesn't even count Scott Alexander as "racist" (although they do at least note his HBD sympathies) and identify a count of full 8 racists. They mention a talk discussing the Holocaust as a Eugenics event (and added an edit apologizing for their simplistic framing). The post author is painfully careful and apologetic to distinguish what they personally experienced, what was "inaccurate" about the Guardian article, how they are using terminology, etc. Despite the author's caution, the comments are full of the classic SSC strategy of trying to reframe the issue (complaining the post uses the word controversial in the title, complaining about the usage of the term racist, complaining about the threat to their freeze peach and open discourse of ideas by banning racists, etc.).

 

This is a classic sequence post: (mis)appropriated Japanese phrases and cultural concepts, references to the AI box experiment, and links to other sequence posts. It is also especially ironic given Eliezer's recent switch to doomerism with his new phrases of "shut it all down" and "AI alignment is too hard" and "we're all going to die".

Indeed, with developments in NN interpretability and a use case of making LLM not racist or otherwise horrible, it seems to me like their is finally actually tractable work to be done (that is at least vaguely related to AI alignment)... which is probably why Eliezer is declaring defeat and switching to the podcast circuit.

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