tardigrada

Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17841591

The World Health Organization has urged China to share data on the origins of the Covid pandemic, five years on from its start in the city of Wuhan.

"This is a moral and scientific imperative," the WHO said in a statement to mark what it called the "milestone" anniversary.

"Without transparency, sharing, and co-operation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics," it added.

Many scientists think the virus transferred naturally from animals to humans, but some suspicions persist that it escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan.

China has not responded to Monday's WHO statement. In the past it has strongly rejected the lab leak theory.

In September, a team of scientists said it was "beyond reasonable doubt" that the Covid pandemic started with infected animals sold at a market, rather than a laboratory leak.

[...]

[WHO] director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at the time that at least seven million people had died in the pandemic.

But he added that the true figure was "likely" closer to 20 million deaths - nearly three times the official estimate.

Since then, the WHO has repeatedly warned against complacency about the possible emergence of future Covid-like illnesses.

Dr Ghebreyesus has said the next pandemic "can come at any moment" and has urged the world to be prepared.

[...]

The US Treasury Department notified lawmakers on Monday that a China state-sponsored actor infiltrated Treasury workstations in what officials are describing as a “major incident.”

[...] ATreasury official said it was informed by a third-party software service provider on December 8 that a threat actor used a stolen key to remotely access certain Treasury workstations and unclassified documents.

“Based on available indicators, the incident has been attributed to a Chinese state-sponsored Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actor,” Aditi Hardikar, assistant secretary for management at the US Treasury, wrote in the letter.

A Treasury spokesperson said in a statement to CNN that the compromised service has been taken offline and officials are working with law enforcement and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

“There is no evidence indicating the threat actor has continued access to Treasury systems or information,” the Treasury spokesperson said.

[...]

Archived version

Weak-kneed responses to attacks on Baltic cables risk allowing the Russia-China axis to conduct free target practice against NATO critical infrastructure, promoting the two countries’ proficiency, interoperability and lethality.

Thanks to this opportunity, Russian crews and their masters ashore will become much better at crippling critical infrastructure connecting NATO states just as Europe is preparing for a defensive war against Moscow’s aggression. And Chinese planners and crews will similarly become more adept at waging this form of hybrid warfare in the Indo-Pacific.

The presence of China-flagged vessels near disruptions to undersea cable infrastructure in Europe in 2024 raises questions about whether Beijing’s involvement was accidental, surveillance-related or part of a coordinated effort. That Beijing calls itself Moscow’s ‘no-limits’ partner suggest its involvement in the suspected sabotage was plausible, if not probable. Even if China wasn’t involved, it will be eager and able to learn from Russia’s experience.

Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17832023

Archived version

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.

The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.

[...]

China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.

Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.

[...]

Archived version

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels in 2024. In its latest report, "Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast for 2024," the agency predicts coal consumption will climb to 877 crore tonnes, marking a new record.

The report notes that while global coal demand increased by 1% in 2023, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2021, coal demand surged by 7.7% following the COVID-19 recovery, while growth rates moderated to 4.7% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023.

[...]

China, the world's largest coal consumer, will significantly drive global demand. The IEA estimates China's coal consumption will grow by 1% in 2024, reaching 490 crore tonnes. India, the second-largest consumer, is expected to see a 5% increase, bringing its consumption to 130 crore metric tonnes—a level previously achieved only by China.

Conversely, coal demand in developed regions like the European Union and the United States continues to decline. The European Union’s demand is projected to drop by 12% in 2024, while the US is expected to see a 5% decline. However, these decreases are less steep compared to the significant drops in 2023.

[...]

Archived version

Shein, a Chinese retailer, has rapidly risen to compete with the likes of H&M and Zara — and even Amazon. But now France is leading the West''s crackdown on the questionable practices of so-called "fast fashion."

An investigation provides a deep look inside the company's working and sourcing practices.

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There is not a minute to spare on the fourth floor of the sewing workshops building [...] “Here, 20,000 items are produced per day. We handle everything, from the purchase of fabrics to the packaging of the items, including cutting. SHEIN wants us to go fast and gives us fines if we don't meet deadlines,” a foreman says. The conversation ends there. SHEIN prohibits any visits and comments from its official suppliers, explains the director.

SHEIN stays very evasive about its supply chain. The retailer relies heavily on small workshops, unlike other international brands who order large volumes from large factories. SHEIN tells Les Échos it works with 6,000 suppliers but does not publish their names and contact details. That is enough to fuel questions about its production methods.

The lunch break is an opportunity to talk to several workers in the canteen or the eateries adjoining the workshop buildings.

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74 hours a week

They all tell us about their extended working hours: “I work from 8 a.m. until noon, then from 1:30 p.m. until 5:30 p.m. and, after dinner, from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m.,” a seamstress says. The evening is free once a week, either on Saturday or on Sunday. That's a total of 74 hours of work per week.

Under Chinese Labor Law, weekly working hours are limited to a maximum of 44 hours, with 36 additional hours allowed per month. In reality, the textile industry often goes beyond that. What about holidays at SHEIN? One Sunday per month. "If I need more, I can ask my boss but it means I won't earn anything," explains a worker, specifying that she has no contract or social benefits.

[...]

All the workers here are migrants coming from other Chinese provinces [than Guangzhou, where the Shein factory is located] who came to find a job or a better salary. “I earn a little more than in Jiangxi [an adjoining province, north of Guangzhou],” says this 50-year-old worker. Like all the employees [...], she is paid by the piece, which encourages her to increase her hours to produce more.

[...]

The presence of a very young girl among the three workers soon catches the eye. “I sort out the clothes according to their size then I put labels on them,” she explains. “I arrive around 9 a.m. and leave around 10 p.m. depending on overtime.” She says she earns 0.30 yuan per piece (5 cents) and has worked here since she left middle school last summer. How old is she? “My daughter is 16 and just comes to give me a hand,” her mother, who packs blouses on the side, quickly intervenes to end the discussion.

[...]

On its U.S. website, the retailer briefly addressed modern slavery in a short statement and published a code of conduct reminding suppliers of their obligation to comply with all applicable laws, including child labor laws. But it is not uncommon in the textile industry for suppliers to subcontract part of the orders to small workshops with no direct link to the retailer, which makes controls difficult.

It takes a simple visit to the residential area of Nancun, where many small workshops are located, to confirm this. Across an alley, our gaze meets hundreds of bags stamped with the SHEIN logo. The manager, busy ironing long black dresses, says the order comes from “a friend”.

[...]

"It is impossible for SHEIN to control all the workshops and its code of conduct mainly aims at responding to the concerns of foreign media and consumers," explains Huang Yan, professor at the University of Technology of South China, in Guangzhou [where the Shein factory is located]. More generally, [...] the use of small workshops do not make the protection of workers any easier.

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This is an opinionated piece by Peter Pomerantsev, senior fellow at SNF Agora Institute, Johns Hopkins University.--

It’s also in Ukraine that one realises that “freedom” and “sovereignty” exist in a collaborative relationship with others. Ukraine is now defending its neighbours’ freedom from an advancing Russia. Kyiv’s resistance is benefiting Taiwan’s freedom, too.

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As Ukraine prepares for possible negotiations, its leadership is asking what “guarantees” its partners can give. If “international order”, “Europe” and even “Nato” are flaky concepts, how can guarantees be secured into something real? Ukrainians remember the Budapest memorandum of 1994, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for promises from Russia, the US and Britain to respect its borders. Everyone fears a repeat of those empty words. Even if Russia agrees to a ceasefire next year, what’s to stop it rearming and attacking again?

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The idea that freedoms and military production are so interdependent may jar with the pacifist instincts of some progressives. But here Ukraine can offer a pointed lesson. Ever since she won the Nobel peace prize, the Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksanda Matviichuk has been gracefully explaining to the world that even though, indeed because, she is a human rights activist, she also advocates for Ukraine’s right to self-defence and to return fire inside Russia at the military bases that are being used to murder Ukrainian civilians. “International law” is also an empty term if it can’t be defended literally.

Cross posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17809174

Archived version

One of China’s leading developers is now on the authorities’ radar for default risk. A major Hong Kong builder is asking lenders to extend loans. Another industry peer is selling an iconic but largely empty mall in Beijing.

As China’s property debt crisis enters its fifth year, there is little indication that distressed developers are finding it easier to repay debt as a slump in home sales continues. Their dollar bonds are still trading at deeply distressed levels, their debt issuance has nearly dried up, and the sector is a notable laggard in stock markets.

Alarm bells went off again in recent weeks, when the banking regulator told top insurers to report their financial exposure to China Vanke to assess how much support the country’s fourth-largest developer by sales needs to avoid default.

[...]

"While recent government policies have helped to arrest the speed of decline, it could take another one or two years for the sector to bottom,” said senior credit analyst Leonard Law at Lucror Analytics.

“Against this backdrop, we can’t rule out the possibility of some more defaults next year, albeit the overall default rate should be much lower than before.”

[...]

The [Chinese government's] rescue measures adopted so far have focused on preventing a collapse in property prices, protecting owners of unfinished apartments and using state funds to help absorb excess supply.

At the same time, policymakers chose to look on as former industry behemoths China Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings became defaulters.

This is why the banking regulator’s queries over insurance firms’ exposure to Vanke’s bonds and private debt have drawn much attention. The insurers conducted similar checks in March as fears grew over the builder’s repayment risks.

Separately, Vanke executives have visited several insurers in the past few weeks, urging them not to exercise put options on some private debt that will soon become open to them.

“If there is no turnaround in property sales, asset disposals remain slow in a weak property market, and financial institutions become more cautious and require additional collateral, we believe Vanke could see a liquidity shortage sooner than expected,” Jefferies Financial Group analysts, including Ms Shujin Chen, wrote in a note.

[...]

Vanke’s dollar bond due May 2025 dropped about 10 US cents in the past week to around 80 US cents on the dollar, the biggest weekly decline in more than a year. Its 2027 note also slumped to 49 US cents, signalling investor doubts about full redemption.

Vanke’s woes come at a time when capital markets continue to show weak investor confidence in the sector: mainland Chinese and Hong Kong developers have issued US$67.3 billion (S$91.3 billion) of bonds in 2024, putting the market on track for its smallest annual issuance in at least in a decade.

[...]

In another worrying development, distressed Hong Kong builder New World Development is asking banks to postpone the due dates of some bilateral loans, a move that deepens concerns over its ability to service one of the heaviest debt loads of its kind.

Controlled by the family empire of tycoon Henry Cheng, the developer had total liabilities of HK$220 billion (S$38.4 billion) at the end of June and recorded its first annual loss in two decades.

[...]

"Hong Kong developers are facing a double-whammy in the current down cycle,” said Mr Daniel Fan, credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

“China’s property market, where many of them are involved, shows no sign of a strong recovery, while Hong Kong’s market correction is still ongoing.”

"The Chinese people are so miserable," read a social media post in the wake of yet another mass killing in the country earlier this year. The same user also warned: "There will only be more and more copycat attacks."

"This tragedy reflects the darkness within society," wrote another.

Such bleak assessments, following a spate of deadly incidents in China during 2024, have led to questions about what is driving people to murder strangers en masse to "take revenge on society".

Attacks like this are still rare given China's huge population, and are not new, says David Schak, associate professor at Griffith University in Australia. But they seem to come in waves, often as copycat attempts at garnering attention.

[...]

From 2019 to 2023, police recorded three to five cases each year, where perpetrators attacked pedestrians or strangers.

In 2024, that number jumped to 19.

[...]

In 2019, three people were killed and 28 injured in such incidents; in 2023, 16 dead and 40 injured and in 2024, 63 people killed and 166 injured. November was especially bloody.

On the 11th of that month, a 62-year-old man ploughed a car into people exercising outside a stadium in the city of Zhuhai, killing at least 35. Police said that the driver had been unhappy with his divorce settlement.

[...]

Days later, in Changde city, a man drove into a crowd of children and parents outside a primary school, injuring 30 of them. The authorities said he was angry over financial losses and family problems.

That same week, a 21-year-old who couldn't graduate after failing his exams, went on a stabbing rampage on his campus in Wuxi city, killing eight and injuring 17.

[...]

China's slowing economy

A major source of pressure in China right now is the sluggish economy. It is no secret that the country has been struggling with high youth unemployment, massive debt and a real estate crisis which has consumed the life savings of many families, sometimes with nothing to show for it.

Studies appear to point to a significant change in attitudes, with a measurable increase in pessimism among Chinese people about their personal prospects. [While in the past] inequality in society could often be attributed to a lack of effort or ability, [...] people were now blaming an "unfair economic system".

[...]

A lack of options

In countries with a healthy media, if you felt you had been fired from your job unfairly or that your home had been demolished by corrupt builders backed by local officials, you might turn to journalists for your story to be heard. But that is rarely an option in China, where the press is controlled by the Communist Party and unlikely to run stories which reflect badly on any level of the government.

[...]

Then there are the courts – also run by and for the party – which are slow and inefficient. Much was made on social media here of the Zhuhai attacker's alleged motive: that he did not achieve what he believed was a fair divorce settlement in court.

Archived version

In Georgia's recent parliamentary elections, the decisive factor in the ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory was the use of “carousels”: a method of vote rigging in which voters cast their ballots at more than one polling station.

In this case, those involved were predominantly male, allowing the fraud to be detected through a gender-based study of data that the Georgian Central Election Commission (CEC) inadvertently provided to independent observers.

Unlike in Russia, outright ballot stuffing is impossible in Georgia, so the orchestrators of carousel voting had to obtain IDs or other identification numbers from real voters who had been paid not to turn up at the polls. Election analyst Roman Udot estimates that a fair vote would have resulted in the ruling party losing its majority in parliament. Anyone interested in checking The Insider’s work can download the data and verify the accuracy of the calculation using this interactive tool.

[...]

Applying the methodology of renowned analyst Sergey Shpilkin to a pair of variables, The Insider was able to calculate the number of anomalous votes: approximately 300,000 in support of the Georgian Dream. The mathematical explanation for the anomaly is supported by eyewitness accounts of “carousel voting” by predominantly male groups.

Carousel organizers obtained genuine IDs — or at least their numbers — from real voters who had guaranteed they would not go to the polls. Carousel voters then used them to cast multiple ballots. The turnout figures showed no anomalies, as bribed ID holders did not come to the polling stations.

[...]

The main evidence of vote rigging is found in the reported electorate’s gender imbalance, which skews decidedly male. This is a statistical anomaly. In the absence of electoral fraud, the average turnout among men and among women would be roughly the same.

[...]

The CEC's gender data immediately raised suspicions. Initially, the CEC reported that 961,751 women and 1,098,661 men had cast ballots — an incredible figure for a nation where women outnumber men by 200,000. In response to the reasonable surprise of local observers, the CEC, in a frantic attempt to cover up the scandal, hid the original data. However, the government body inadvertently issued a document with detailed data for each polling station. The second report attempted to mask the initial anomaly by adding 91,911 female voters and hiding 88,975 male voters, but analysts were not fooled.

[...]

Such a ratio of male to female voters is inexplicable. If male and female voters showed the same level of electoral activity at each station (the same number of ballots cast per 100 registered voters of each gender), a total of 913,584 male voters would have voted nationwide, instead of the recorded 1,006,170. In short, the CEC’s revised data still shows an anomalous surplus of 92,586 male votes.

[...]

The second most “hyperactive” male region of Georgia, Gori, [...] showed a surplus of approximately 5,000 men. On Nov. 25, the Mtavari Arkhi TV channel broadcast the confession of a man called Gocha Chalauri, who shared how he and his associates repeatedly voted for Georgian Dream in the Oct. 26 elections:

"There were four of us in my car, all men, driving as part of a group of five vehicles. We traveled through Gori, from one village to another, and voted for Georgian Dream about 30 times each. In total, 120 or 130 cars like ours were driving around [the Gori region].”

Electoral fraud is a crime in Georgia, so Chalauri's words should be taken seriously.

[...]

According to Georgian journalists, voters who “rented out” their IDs or personal data promised not to show up at the polls for the recent election. Eyewitness accounts and testimonies from those who took part in the fraud, captured on camera by Pirveli, suggest that this [fraud] scheme was orchestrated by heads of local administrations and members of the Georgian Dream party.

[...]

Each appearance of a “carousel” participant adds one vote for the Georgian Dream and likely subtracts one from the opposition while leaving voter turnout unchanged. As such, it renders fraud detection through traditional methods nearly impossible.

[...]

Subtracting these 300,000 “carousel” votes both from Georgian Dream’s results and from the overall turnout would lower the party’s share from 54% to 46%, reducing their parliamentary seats from 89 to 77 — to a tipping point of a majority in the 150-seat parliament.

However, if there had been no “passport rentals,” and if the citizens who were paid to stay home had shown up to vote for the opposition, genuine voters would have contributed to the turnout — and thus to the total denominator. In that case, the ruling party’s percentage would have dropped even further, to 39%. In this scenario, Georgian Dream would have secured only 67 seats in parliament — and ceased to be the ruling party.

In reality, not all of those voters would have necessarily supported the opposition, but calculations based on official Central Election Commission data show that even a slight influx of average voters would have inevitably tipped the scales.

Archived version

A ninth U.S. telecoms firm has been confirmed to have been hacked as part of a sprawling Chinese espionage campaign that gave officials in Beijing access to private texts and phone conversations of an unknown number of Americans, a top White House official said Friday.

Biden administration officials said this month that at least eight telecommunications companies, as well as dozens of nations, had been affected by the Chinese hacking blitz known as Salt Typhoon.

But deputy national security adviser Anne Neuberger told reporters Friday that a ninth victim had been identified after the administration released guidance to companies about how to hunt for Chinese culprits in their networks.

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The hackers compromised the networks of telecommunications companies to obtain customer call records and gain access to the private communications of what officials have said is a a limited number of individuals. Though the FBI has not publicly identified any of the victims, officials believe senior U.S. government officials and prominent political figures are among those whose whose communications were accessed.

Archived version

Listening equipment was placed on Eagle S and related tanker Swiftsea Rider to monitor Nato naval and aircraft activities.

Russia-linkex dark fleet* tanker Eagle S (IMO: 9329760), seized by Finland on December 25 for damaging an undersea cable, had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a “spy ship” for Russia, Lloyd’s List has learnt.

The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.

[...]

As well as Eagle S, another related tanker from the same ownership cluster, UK-sanctioned Swiftsea Rider (IMO: 9318539), also had similar equipment installed, Lloyd’s List was told.

Cook Islands-flagged Eagle S and Honduras-flagged Swiftsea Rider are two of 26 elderly Russia-linked tankers with opaque ownership structures connected to three related shipmanagers, including two sanctioned by the UK government 12 months ago for “propping up Putin’s war machine”.

[...]

Eagle S was boarded by Finnish forces investigating sabotage of the Estlink 2 undersea cable that disrupted the supply of electricity to Estonia from Finland.

The tanker slowed and dragged its anchor around the cable around midday, December 25, Finland’s police said. Another three cables were also damaged.

[...]

The equipment was kept on the bridge or in the “monkey island”, they said. The monkey island is the top-most place on the ship.

The transmitting and receiving devices were used to record all radio frequencies, and upon reaching Russia were offloaded for analysis.

“They were monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft,” Lloyd’s List was told.

“They had all details on them. They were just matching their frequencies.

“Russians, Turkish, Indian radio officers were operating it.”

[...]