this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2025
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To a large extent it is, the major difference being that when people take actions based of these signs, it influences which way the chart goes next, unlike the planets, which do not care the slightest what people do based on their actions. Thus you can end up making a lot of money if your actions are 1) correctly anticipating subsequent actions by other people and 2) sufficiently in advance of other actions. Which makes inside trading and pump-and-dump schemes great ways to get filthy rich, if you find yourself in a position to be able to pull that off. Or if you are lucky. Or if you have made a name for yourself and everyone else just assume you know what you are doing and follows (Warren Buffet comes to mind).
But Warren Buffet does know what he's doing. He doesn't buy based on charts though, he buys based on fundamentals, and many of his bets take years to prove themselves.
I think this is more applicable to the vast swarms of YT influencers who push trading software. Get enough viewers and rent enough Lambos and people will think you know something. Or maybe even people like Jim Cramer, who has a mediocre success rate in his own trading firm, yet still has his picks get parroted because he has a TV show.
Don't blindly buy stuff because someone else tells you to, or even because someone else does. Buy stuff because you know what you're doing. If you don't know what you're doing (the vast majority of people), just buy diversified index funds. In the US, this means something like VTI and VXUS, or the various equivalents in various brokerages/retirement plans. That's what I do, and I've had a pretty good experience so far, no experience reading tea leaves required.
Right but the planets being in particular locations in the sky doesn't really result in astrologists saying a particular thing is going to happen. They basically just make something up and then decide that's what the planet says. They could basically just ignore the positions of the planet and it wouldn't really make any difference.
Otherwise history would repeat every couple of decades.
That makes sense. Essentially, there are things that are influenced by perception and those that are immune to perception.
Yes, and by the sheer existence of the concept of a "death cross", and now that it has happened for the Tesla stock, people will act as if whatever a "death cross" predicts will come to pass. So even though there was some correlation before someone formulated it as a concept, now the response will be different because people will act on it. If enough people believes it, it will probably just accelerate the process as they will seek to sell off before the downturn, pushing the prices down. Which is the way the Tesla stock should go, so I am all for this cross of death.