Motor vehicle deaths overall are up, but not nearly to the same degree. From 2009 to 2023, non-pedestrian motor vehicle deaths in the US increased by around 13%, compared to a 78% increase in pedestrian deaths. (The low point in non-pedestrian motor vehicle deaths is actually 2014; deaths are up 20% since then.)

There are a variety of theories for what’s causing this increase in pedestrian deaths. Perhaps the most common theory is that as trucks and SUVs have become both more popular and larger (in height and overall size), pedestrian collisions have become more frequent and more deadly. Another theory (one that’s harder to square with the “US only” nature of the phenomenon) is that drivers are increasingly distracted by smartphones, leading to more accidents. And of course, it could be something else entirely, such as drivers becoming more reckless for some reason.

Looking at the data, the strongest evidence seems to be for the “big SUV” hypothesis: the fatality rate for pedestrian accidents has increased dramatically across a variety of states, pointing to “pedestrian accidents becoming more deadly” as a major cause of the increase. But the case for it isn’t open and shut, as pedestrian deaths involving sedans and compacts have also increased.