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I don't disagree with you, but I feel like people jump to that scenario without describing the steps to get there. How do you see unfolding? How do different opposition groups respond such as the DNC? What about blue states? How does the administration handle it without losing popular consensus? Does it even matter? If they use the military, how do they get the military stay the path when the populous begins to reject their intervention?
Trump is sending "election observers" to California because of prop 50 and to New York because of Mamdani. It's reasonable to be very concerned about future election integrity. ICE has a larger budget than the Marines. They've openly ignored courts. They have fully abandoned the rule of law.
Like I said, I don't disagree that this is a possibility, but I'm curious how people see it unfolding. I like to leverage other minds to develop my thinking.
They just told you how they see it unfolding though.
The only thing they said was they are sending election observers. How does that answer any of the very valid questions I asked?
Martial law to respond to ice agents being killed or police turning against them.
They’re already trying to instigate this.
“The Supreme Court says it’s ok, so our hands are tied, but we’re very upset.”
They already have the Supreme Court on their team.
Governors will either roll over or start a hot civil war.
Which do you think they’ll choose?
By arresting and murdering protesters.
They’ve already identified vague groups like antifa as domestic terrorists.
If you give ICE a large enough budget, they can act as a new military. And by firing non-loyal brass for not being able to do enough pushups and replacing them with loyalists, you can keep the military from intervening under the guise of neutrality.
The Courts are, as you noted, already in line with or an ineffective hedge against the administration. I think there are other opposition groups. I suspect there are more than a few in the military who are willing to resist. Discounting military leaders has been the downfall of many rebellions.
Replacing personelle isn't as easy as just putting someone loyal into the position. Execution requires competency and the counter elites don't have experience to run things effectively save a few notable exceptions. They seem best suited to posturing, making grand proclamations, and breaking things. This is fine when you're trying to destroy the old order, but building one is a lot harder.
I'm skeptical they can do this en mass without emboldening resistance at first. Your need a well staffed group of people to deal with this in hundreds of sites and willing to kill people. For everything the MAGA movement has done, they've never given a positivist vision for the future. Which is to say, what future are we creating that makes it worth killing people.
None of my critiques should be read as they can't do it. Rather, these are strategic points at which interference could undermine their efforts.
As for blue states, I think most will gesture towards being offended greatly, but fail to create an effective opposition. I do think a couple will attempt a hot resistance. And if, say, a Pacific front opens, this could be difficult to deal with. Furthermore, pockets of resistence within red states will be very, very difficult to stamp out. Our large geography makes it very difficult to command and control.
I don't think ICE, even as well funded as they are, have the trained pedosnelle or institutions to replicate anything like a military force. Hell, out military isn't even well designed to be an effective occupation force.
While the whole world is focused on Epstein files, thinking it's going to be his downfall (why would it?), he's replacing the leaders of many institutions with yes men, that emergency meeting Hegseth had calling in all the military generals should honestly be the most alarming thing in recent US history, and yet we aren't even a quarter of the way through his term.
Kinda hard not to be alarmist