Linux

All out street warfare against Linux users! They'll be arming their army with AI laser guided missiles! The backdoored AI drones!

I'd wager they have enough resources to stave it off for as long as possible, and when they can't do that anymore they will have a strategy for making money off of their "services" in the linux space.

Microsoft is part of the cabal at this point. Businesses give it money because they're expected to.

MS already doesn't have a monopoly in any meaningful sense anymore.

• https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202507 - in early 2009, almost 95% of web usage was from Windows, by now it is at around 28%, no longer even the most popular OS, which is now Android around 42%
• https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-200901-202507 - even looking only at the desktop and ignoring the shift to mobile devices, Windows fell from ~95% to ~72% during the same time period, mostly losing to macOS but more recently also Linux

Windows isn't the main way Microsoft makes money anymore anyway...

Maybe requiring locking bootloader "for safety" on desktop computers if they want to run windows 12

I believe they just don't care, since not only is Windows not very profitable anymore, the real money is at businesses. So as long as they sell licenses to businesses (business laptops, etc), but also GitHub Enterprise (yes, Micro$oft also owns GitHub) Microsoft earns enough money that way. And also think cloud (Azure)..

My guess is therefor that the focus on Windows isn't that big anymore. I just hope more companies and gaming devs/publishes also push native binaries towards Linux.

The desktop has been losing market for a while. I feel Windows is already under serious threat (if not already in the minority) when you think about all the devices that mainstream audiences orbit around (phones, tablets, portable consoles, etc), often using the Linux kernel. Only about a third of most website traffic comes from desktops.

Many of the people who frequently use Windows desktop do so because of their job, and often avoid using it outside of work as much as possible, since it feels like.. well, work.

Microsoft has been desperately trying to appeal to those other bigger sectors of the pie and has failed every time.

PC Gaming was one sector they had advantage on, yet that has already started to crumble thanks to Valve. I feel that MS will just try to push for integrating their xbox with Windows OS more and more...

I feel it's a battle with many fronts, since PCs have many uses.. so MS is likely to run their typical spiel: copy what the competition are doing and try to centralize/integrate it with their OS in a way that gives them an advantage, as they are famous for doing.

Another sector they can do this is with the WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux)... they could turn Windows into a frontend for running Linux apps... so if Linux apps became popular, they could try to advertise Windows as the "best" way to run Linux software without losing the full first party support of legacy Windows software.

Embrace, extend, extinguish.

SQL Server runs on Linux. Azure supports Linux. The next step is to extend into their own distro, get everyone using it, then drop support for mainstream Linux.

Will it work? Maybe. They'll have to make Microsoft Linux more attractive than Debian and Red Hat.

Microsoft already lost the home OS battle when people switch their main devices to smartphones with iOS or Android.

It's mobile devices that are eroding Windows market share on desktops, not Linux.

Linux already dominates the server space, it runs the internet and super computing, but it will NEVER be a threat to Microsoft on desktops.

Exactly what they're doing right now. What cable companies did. What every dominant business does when something better starts to eat their lunch.

Become increasingly abusive and scummy towards the customers who are left, because they're either too deeply ingrained, spineless or lazy to change and they've already self-selected.

Work with hardware and software vendors to break linux compatibility.

Hear me out on this one "Microsoft Linux"

They will adapt.

Embrace, extend, extinguish. They will become Linux.

In all seriousness, if you look into how windows manages its security now, it leverages virtualization to essentially run windows inside of a hypervisor. At some point in the future, the legacy windows kernel is going to just be another virtual machine running side by side with Linux and the hypervisor will probably run their HyperV tech on top of a Linux (compatible) kernel.

Then they will say that you need their version of Linux to run specific hardware and software.

EEE

pays even more to hardware manufacturers to add windows by default, and make drivers windows only.

Some others have already said the "embrace, extend, extinguish" but here's my take on it. Pair it with Secure Boot and TPM 2.0

• Embrace: Secure Boot can already work with Linux, how lucky! This gives them not exactly control, but authoritative denial over your boot process and hardware.
• Extend: This is the part that remains to be seen. If they feel threatened enough by the shift in the gaming landscape, mind you not over losing out on sales or the hearts of gamers or anything, but again control, they may begin to make Linux offerings. A concession to allow an honest to god, thick Office client on Linux would certainly appeal to some. Adobe gets in on that action to back them up with Photoshop and Activision with Call of Duty, etc.
• Extinguish: TPM 2.0. One of the less talked about features of this is remote attestation ("Remote attestation allows changes to the user's computer to be detected by authorized parties. For example, software companies can identify unauthorized changes to software, including users modifying their software to circumvent commercial digital rights restrictions." - DRM). We're already seeing this with CoD on Windows. They'll allow you to run much requested Windows software on Linux, even provide direct support possibly, but at the cost of not precisely control but authoritative denial. Which still works out to be control in most ways since if you want to use the software and they are to remotely attest, they can also insist that part of that attestation is you running some sort of telemetry or not running software they disagree with.

The reason I think this route is highly likely is because it plays well with uninformed consumers. To the untrained eye it looks like they're giving ground and actually allowing for broader support of their software while effectively gaining control over the environment once again and removing the biggest benefits of running FOSS on your system.

Adapt and fight. Linux is the dominant OS for everything, so Windows started to support it (wsl) so they don't loose developers. Secure boot worked as a moat for a while and the MS monopoly on OS keys is still an obstacle. Linux works better on ARM than Windows, so obviously Qualcom Laptops have a locked down bootloader. They will continue to lock themselfes into the future with money and development resources.

Add more spyware, isn’t that the de facto mentality of Microsoft? Add more spyware so they can force you to buy more crap, al for the “greater good”. Oh yeah, and most likely try and take over secureboot with some Microsoft crap allowed only, “for to protect the children”.

Secure boot and anti-cheat.

Linux has been becoming a "serious threat" for 20+ years now. I'll wait.

Don't get me wrong I like Linux a lot. But if you step back and look objectively, it has a lot of issues trying to grow outside the hobby/enthusiast community for the desktop.

Make a version of Office that works on Linux natively.

Windows is only 12% of Microsoft's revenue, and between Mac, Linux and ChromeOS, it really doesn't have a monopoly anymore on desktop (about 70%). On top of that, desktop usage in general is decreasing, and is already less than 50% of all web traffic.

What I'm saying is that I think it's safe to say something else will likely "kill" Windows long before Linux ever becomes a serious threat to it.

I'm going to go with "nothing". They blend their numbers but I'd be willing to bet the amount of money they make selling direct licenses is tiny. (Tiny at their scale, I'd take it any day.) The whole OEM business isn't even huge to them. If they start losing the enterprise market, then I'm sure they would throw down, but you and everyone you know installing Linux would be fine. Have you noticed how easy it is to steal windows and how there seem to be very few repercussions? That says volumes about what they think the revenue potential of that market is..

They are already lobbying for stupid shit, and coordinating deals with manufacturers.

Well there is the 9/11 change that may be happening soon: https://techrights.org/n/2025/08/26/The_UEFI_9_11_Part_I_Introduction_to_Impending_Catastrophe_Micr.shtml

Its possible a LOT of linux machines wont work after this date.

My expectation: nothing. At least, nothing on the OS side. I don’t think windows is very important to microsoft strategically.

Nowadays, the way to capture audiences is not so much via a proprietary OS, but via proprietary apps.

And in that sense, microsoft is proceeding exactly as expected: more and more of the windows ecosystem either exists on the web, or is available on linux and macos too.

I can see a future where windows only exists for backwards compatibility, but otherwise:

• dotnet apps run on linux (via dotnet core)
• edge runs on linux
• powershell runs on linux
• visual studio code runs on linux
• most of the rest of microsoft’s suite runs in the web

So what does microsoft need to do once windows collapses in the desktop space? Imo not much, really. Those people and companies that are tied to microsoft products will still be. Only, they might be running them on linux.

Edit to add: I am gonna place a bet that we’re gonna see an official microsoft linux distribution by the end of 2035

Well the Xbox app that suspends Windows processes is a reaction to this threat. The threat not being Linux in general but SteamOS and Proton specifically. I don’t think anyone imagined it would be gaming that would usher in the era of Linux but it does seem that that will be the case.

Desktop users (except for business) don’t make Microsoft any money, so they probably don’t care.