merc

joined 2 years ago
[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 2 points 15 hours ago

You mean the thing where we put tons of greenhouse gases in the air which warms the planet and makes it even better for photosynthesizing life, but even worse for mammals?

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago (2 children)

The only way to learn what something sounds like as a non-native speaker is to look it up or listen to someone pronounce it. There are no rules -- or at least no useful rules, because any rule will have many exceptions. Even different English dialects differ in how to pronounce words. There's simply no making sense of it.

For example, in many British English dialects, the "a" in "can" and the one in "can't" are pronounced completely differently, despite "can't" being a contraction of "can not". It's literally the same word, just with a different word afterwords, and yet the two get different pronunciations. There's no way to guess at that being the case, or come up with a logical reason why. You just have to accept it.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 day ago (2 children)

How do you pronounce gnocci, gnat, etc? They may start with a 'g' but the proper pronunciation is just /n/.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 day ago

And then there are the cases where two consonants combine to form another sound entirely: ph, ch, sh, th.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I'm seeing reality, you're seeing what you want to see.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 0 points 2 days ago (3 children)

That's what's in the tiny text at the bottom, but the actual argument as presented is "it's the way things were done in the past, so it's bad".

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 1 points 2 days ago

So closer to average human intelligence than it would appear

No, zero intelligence.

It's like how people are fooled by optical illusions. It doesn't mean optical illusions are smart, it just means that they tickle a part of the brain that sees patterns.

a paper on a new architecture they developed that has serious promise

Oooh, a new architecture and serious promise? Wow! You should invest!

The metric is the code. We can look at the code, see what kind of mistakes it's making

No, we can't. That's the whole point. If that were possible, then companies could objectively determine who their best programmers were, and that's a holy grail they've been chasing for decades. It's just not possible.

and then alter the model to try to be better

Nobody knows how to alter the model to try to be better. That's why multi-billion dollar companies are releasing new models that are worse than their previous models.

Maybe it's next month

It's definitely not next month, or next year, or next century. Nobody has any idea how to get to actual intelligence, and despite the hype progress is as slow as ever.

Every new development could be the big one

Keep drinking that kool-aid.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 0 points 2 days ago (5 children)

I don't care about lawns, I care about the bad argument claiming that if things were done a certain way 300 years ago, they're necessarily bad.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 1 points 2 days ago

Then say that, instead of saying "do you dress like this?"

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 1 points 2 days ago

I don't care about lawns, what I care about is the bad argument claiming that just because things were done a certain way 300 years ago means that they're necessarily bad.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 0 points 2 days ago

The basic design of lawns doesn't need to change

I'm not really interested in lawns, just the bad argument that was used to claim that something being in use 300 years ago means that it's necessarily out of date and needs to be replaced.

[–] merc@sh.itjust.works 2 points 2 days ago (2 children)

It's probably gonna be a complex model that uses modules like LLMs to fulfill a compound task.

That sounds very hand-wavey. But, even the presence of LLMs in the mix suggests it isn't going to be very good at whatever it does, because LLMs are designed to fool humans into thinking something is realistic rather than actually doing something useful.

We know that it can output code, which means we have a quantifiable metric to make it better at coding

How so? Project managers have been working for decades to quantify code, and haven't managed to make any progress at it.

It's not if we're going to get a decent coding AI, it's when.

The year 30,000 AD doesn't count.

 

In the most recent Arsecast, Andrew and Lewis Ambrose played a game where they picked a team of Arsenal players to lose. The restrictions were that the player couldn't be played too far out of position, and that they had to have at least 20 appearances for Arsenal in all competitions in the emirates era, and that the team be in a 4-3-3 shape.

It's worth listening to the episode. They didn't always pick the worst players, sometimes it was players who were just bad in a certain position, or surrounded by players who emphasized their faults.

You can see the two teams if you want to skip to the end.

Seems like a fun game, anybody want to post their designed-to-lose teams?

 
  • At least 200 people have died
  • The plane crashed into a doctor's hostel, injuring many people on the ground
  • One passenger survived, with injuries minor enough he was able to walk away
  • The plane was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner
 

1:20 AM EST

210/266 polls reporting

| Name | Party | Votes | % | |


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|


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| | Bruce Fanjoy | Liberal | 27,220 | 50.4 | | Pierre Poilievre | Conservative | 24,927 | 46.1|

 

Stocks have almost returned to where they were 5 days ago after his latest change to the tariffs.

 

I need some new earbuds, and live in a place with severe winters. I want to be able to access the controls using gloves or mittens if possible.

The online reviews I've seen all assume that you can just touch the earbuds with bare hands, but when it's well below freezing, that sometimes isn't possible. If I have to take off a mitt to use my earbuds my hand might not warm up until I can get back indoors again. Earbuds that work with touchscreen-capable gloves aren't good enough either. I've never seen touchscreen-capable gloves that keep your hands warm at -40C.

Any suggestions?

1
New shirt (sh.itjust.works)
 
 

First time home buyers will not be charged GST (5%) when buying a home, as long as the place they're buying costs less than $1M. This means that people buying a home for the first time will save up to $50k on their purchase.

Edit: Note, GST is mostly only charged when buying newly built homes, so this won't have any effect for people buying used homes.

 

Currently the PM doesn't have a seat in the house. If he visited the house, he'd have to go to the visitor's gallery.

It's an interesting situation. The PM is the leader of the federal liberal party, but he's not a member of parliament. But, does he need to be? Is the PM sitting in the house of commons just a tradition that nobody has challenged yet? Could the PM delegate things inside the house of commons to their deputy-PM and then do things like give speeches, attend diplomatic functions, etc.?

The US has a very different system where the president isn't part of the legislative branch at all. But, typically presidents don't twiddle their thumbs waiting for something to do. Being the head of state keeps most presidents busy. It makes me wonder if technically Carney could choose not to run for office, and just spend his time doing head-of-state things rather than legislative things.

 

"Sports Interactive regret to inform that, following extensive internal discussion and careful consideration with SEGA, we have made the difficult decision to cancel Football Manager 25 and shift our focus to the next release."

 

This sounds like a disaster.

For those who don't know, Football Manager has a yearly release schedule, and the highlight of the release is that it has a database of nearly every professional player in the world, the club they play for, and an attempt to "scout" them, giving all their various attributes from passing ability, to height and weight, to their determination.

By releasing in March 2025, they're going to release the game essentially at the end of the 2024/2025 season right before players start moving to new clubs and the database becomes obsolete. Typically, around March is when they're giving deep discounts on the yearly release because they know there won't be much remaining interest in playing a game that's almost out of date.

They really shot themselves in the foot. They could have released a Football Manager 25 that was 100% FM 24 but with an updated database, they've done it before. They could have called "Football Manager 25" something like "Football Manager Next Gen" and not tied themselves to a certain season. And, if they do manage to get Football Manager 25 out in March, are they really going to be able to do FM 26 half a year later? Will anybody buy FM 25 if they know there's a FM 26 coming out so soon?

 

It's amazing to me that they can even measure a 0.01 XG shot. This comes from James Benge's twitter account.

The XG graph is also interesting. Tottenham has a continuous stream of very low quality shots, resulting in the graph going up in tiny increments. Arsenal has a series of decent chances near minute 17, and then the one high-quality shot resulting in Gabriel's goal.

Arsenal vs. Tottenham XG graph

https://understat.com/match/26640

I'm sure part of it is Arsenal defending in a low block after scoring. But, it also smacks of desperation on Tottenham's part. If you're taking a shot that has a 1% chance of going in, rather than passing and waiting for a better opportunity, you don't believe that you're going to get a better opportunity.

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