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Russia sees creating the “macroregion” as an important long-term project, which would outlast any talks with the west over the future of Ukraine, to help strengthen its footing on the “global arena,” the report says.
The new bloc would connect Russia to the global south by giving each side access to raw materials, developing financial and transport ties, and uniting them through a common “world view [ . . .] where we write rule for the new world [and have] our own sanctions policy”, the report claims.
But it admits the obstacles to Russia’s global resurgence remain considerable. The report says western countries have successfully threatened central Asian countries into complying with sanctions through a “carrot-and-stick” approach while offering them access to global markets, transport corridors, and supply chains that bypass Moscow.
Russia’s allies, meanwhile, have profited from the sanctions by driving Russian businesses out of their home jurisdiction, taking control of import and export flows, and relocating production from Russia, according to the report. It adds that central Asian countries have also sought extra commissions to compensate for the risks of violating sanctions.
This is the realpolitik answer. Intake perception of power, intentions, hard power, and leverage, among other things to get the context for position changes.