UltraMagnus

The tricky part about a general strike is that you dont have much room for do-overs if it turns out you don't have the numbers you need. Protests are largely symbolic, but are also a good way for organizers to gauge how willing/able folks are to engage in more drastic action.

If a general strike is what you think the movement should go towards, I recommend your next steps be strengthening community support systems - food banks, free clinics, shelters, etc - since these things will be needed to support a general strike (folks will choose feeding their children over political action, so make sure they can accomplish both). In the mean time, it also helps out folks who have been hit the hardest by republican and trump cuts to services.

I highly recommend folks read up on some of ICNC's stuff, since they focus on the practical side of nonviolent conflict.

That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that "rule" was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I'm also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.

Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of "converting" certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don't get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does

ETA: Nepal's discord had about 100k members, and it's population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march

Ah, but they were wearing a bright yellow vest! Be honest - would you think twice if you saw someone wearing a safety yellow vest and carrying a drill? Apparently there was construction going on nearby as well, so the basket lift didn't really stand out.

I suppose you could do it a la "The Dispossesed" where you spend one day/week doing community service

Has the concept of UBI been around long enough to fulfill your requirements? A 20-year study across a large population would of course be superior, but shorter-length studies with less people are necessary to prove/disprove whether those large scale studies should be funded. Not to mention the ethical implications of forcing someone into a large scale study like that before any results have been shown at all.

I think it's fine to be skeptical of anyone considering UBI to be "case closed", but small studies being done before large studies is standard practice. You can't give that kind of grand scale funding to every hypothesis that pops into someone's head, so it's a reasonable way of determining what shows promise and should be looked into more.

It is a good point, though I suppose the argument would be that it's easier for a bridge builder to find paying work than an artist

Well, there are plenty of famous artists who only became famous after they died. Contemporary popularity doesn't guarantee historic/cultural impact.

I'm not aware of the specific requirements of this program, but Iteland also has a case for cultural preservation, particularly with works in the Irish language, which may not have the international appeal necessary to make a good profit but are important for intrinsic reasons to Ireland.

There's also the case to be made that in order to become a great artist, you must first be a bad artist - and there aren't that many jobs for internships/apprenticeships in the arts, especially as some of the more "basic" jobs (cheap graphic arts, copywriters, muzak, etc.) are snapped up by AI.

I think there is an interesting discussion to be had about what an artist must have in order to qualify for something like this. I would also be concerned with "antiestablishment" works possibly being excluded.

I haven't blocked anyone here, but on Tumblr I started unfollowing folks who posted about doom and gloom all the time. That site's more conducive to memes and TV show discussions than it is discussion about news/politics, and I don't like scrolling through a bunch of superhero memes and then getting hit with a post about the latest atrocity in the world. That stuffs important, but it's not healthy to fixate on it all the time.

It's important to curate what you're doing so that you dont fall into a doomscrolling trap or get ragebaited into arguments that go nowhere.

Well, any event could be "the straw that breaks the camels back" for someone who is apathetic about politics or supports trump. No single protest or action is going to cause millions of people to suddenly flip, it's going to be more like a slow trickle.

(Of course, you can argue all day about it not being quick enough, or it not accomplishing its goals in time, but it's not like other methods would be particularly faster)

Timing is a fools game for sure. Bubble could pop next month, next year, or even later.

If you're old, make sure you have a good percent in bonds. If you're young, make sure you have 6-12 months saved in case of layoffs and keep saving - market will look completely different in 20-30 years anyways so it's not worth worrying about.

The other option is that the supreme court undoes a prior decision, like they did to roe v. wade. Texas v. Johnson was only a 5-4 decision (To be clear, I think this would be awful as well, but it is likely how the admin plans to enforce this, assuming they have a plan).

No, what you say makes sense, and I think it's part of the reason why linux usage (as a daily driver) is starting to increase now versus 20 years ago. It's just easier to install and use linux distros nowadays.

And most folks who want office for free are going to go with google docs, for the convenience factor.