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AOC and Bernie will get into swing states later, if not sooner. Besides, those swing states you mentioned were solidly Democratic until the pressure of globalisation and jobs outsourcing made former Democratic voters had enough, and they had been big fans of Obama. I think AOC and Bernie won't have any problems rallying the swing states.
I’m from NC and the South previously being Democrat doesn’t have a positive influence. Especially since Dems have taken the opposition to tariffs. The people whose jobs were replaced associate globalizing decisions with Democrats (especially Clinton) and want to punish other countries who “stole” our jobs, whether it’s ultimately better for us or not. Also we weren’t big fans of Obama, he just faced weak candidates, MAGA didn’t exist yet, and he could rally the black male vote that has slowly been turning conservative. Those guys are not going to vote for an old white dude or AOC. Perhaps they’ll have a better chance in WI, MI, and PA.
The only ways I see Dems winning in the South is to change their priorities (ie stop dying on the 20% hill on 80/20 issues), if the tariffs cause a recession, or there’s another Black Swan event like the pandemic that Trump fumbles. Otherwise, as Jon Stewart was saying lately, Trump is beating their approval ratings by 20% overall, so likely even more in swing states.
Trump won by a larger margin in 2024 than in 2020, after multiple convictions and Jan 6. He had the biggest swing state vote margin apart from Obama who as I’ve said was a unique candidate/cycles.
I volunteered for Kamala and was semi shocked at the results, but it also made me expand my news sources and talk more to ideologically different people, which is why I’m more negative about Dems’ swing state chances, particularly in NC and GA.
The only issues that have remotely resonated with fellow independents is if they go past pursuing visa students and attack free speech for citizens.
Honestly, I plugged my nose and supported Dems chosen candidate since 2020 and I won’t do it again unless it’s someone like Pete.
Those are the places that I mean. Those states are part of the infamous Rust Belt area whose citizens are mostly working class that used to vote Democrats. They are now the swing states that I believe AOC and Bernie could easily win.